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欧洲粮仓陷入冲突困境 国内玉米市场会不会遭殃? The European granary is in crisis, will the domestic corn market suffer?

     由于新冠疫情和全球通胀等诸多因素影响,从2020年至2021年全球粮价几番创下新高。从全球供给来看,受南美玉米产区持续干旱影响,全球玉米产量和库存均有所下滑。据USDA发布的2月最新供需报告显示,全球2021/22年度玉米年末库存下调至3.0222亿吨,全球产量下调至12.0535亿吨。巴西方面,2021/2022年度玉米产量下调至1.14亿吨。整体来看全球玉米的产量及库存均呈下降态势,若继续下滑,市场对供给端担忧或将继续升温,从而提振玉米价格。

Due to many factors such as the COVID-19 epidemic and global inflation, global food prices hit new highs several times from 2020 to 2021. From the perspective of global supply, due to the continued drought in the corn producing areas of South America, global corn production and inventories have declined. According to the latest supply and demand report released by USDA in February, global corn ending stocks for 2021/22 were lowered to 302.22 million tons, and global production was lowered to 1,205.35 million tons. In Brazil, corn production in 2021/2022 is lowered to 114 million tons. On the whole, the global corn production and inventories are in a downward trend. If the decline continues, the market's concerns about the supply side may continue to heat up, thereby boosting corn prices.

根据联合国粮农组织发布的数据来看,全球大豆、玉米、小麦等价格在今年1月份创下了近10年以来的新高。自上周以来俄乌局势不断升级,已经对全球农产品贸易格局产生明显影响。随着俄乌战争的爆发,引发全球大宗商品剧烈波动,人们担心黑海地区谷物出口中断,全球小麦及玉米等价格大幅上扬。截至2022225日的一周,全球饲粮价格大多上涨。其中芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)20225月玉米期约报收655.75美分/蒲,比一周前上涨3美分或0.46%。美湾2号黄玉米报价为每蒲750美分,比一周前上涨5.25美分或0.7%EURONEXT交易所的20226月玉米期约报收268.25欧元/吨,比一周前上涨16.5欧元或6.6%。阿根廷玉米在上河的FOB现货报价为299美元/吨,比一周前上涨11美元或3.8%。大商所20225月玉米期约报收2,840/吨,比一周前上涨65元或2.3%

According to data released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, global prices of soybeans, corn, and wheat hit a new high in nearly 10 years in January this year. The escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine since last week has had a significant impact on the global agricultural trade pattern. With the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, global commodity prices fluctuated violently, people were worried that grain exports from the Black Sea region would be interrupted, and global prices of wheat and corn rose sharply. Global feed grain prices were mostly higher for the week ending February 25, 2022. Among them, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) May 2022 corn futures closed at about 655.75 cents per Bushel, up 3 cents or 0.46% from a week ago. US Gulf No. 2 yellow corn was quoted at 750 cents a Bushel, up 5.25 cents, or 0.7%, from a week ago. The June 2022 corn futures on the EURONEXT exchange closed at around €268.25/tonne, up €16.50 or 6.6% from a week ago. The FOB spot price of Argentine corn in Shanghe was $299/ton, up $11 or 3.8% from a week ago. The May 2022 corn futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at around 2,840 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan or 2.3% from a week ago.

众所周知,俄罗斯和乌克兰都是全球主要谷物出口国,合计占到全球小麦出口量的三成左右,占到玉米出口的19%。此外乌克兰也是近年来我国的主要玉米进口来源国,2013年起我国开始首次采购乌克兰玉米,之后两年内取代美国成为我国的主要供应国,占到进口玉米总量的60%-86%之间。受中美贸易战以及中国实施采购产地多元化等因素,乌克兰玉米为非转基因品种,得到国内更多买家的青睐。根据海关数据显示,2021年度1-12月我国共进口玉米总量为2836万吨,其中从美国进口玉米1982.81万吨,占全年玉米进口总量的69.9%;其次是乌克兰,进口量为824万吨,占进口总量的29.1%

As we all know, Russia and Ukraine are the world's major exporters of grains, together accounting for about 30% of global wheat exports and 19% of corn exports. In addition, Ukraine has also been my country's main source of corn imports in recent years. Since 2013, my country has begun to purchase Ukrainian corn for the first time. In the next two years, it has replaced the United States as my country's main supplier, accounting for between 60% and 86% of the total imported corn. Affected by the Sino-US trade war and China's implementation of the diversification of purchasing origins, Ukrainian corn is a non-GMO variety and is favored by more domestic buyers. According to customs data, from January to December 2021, my country imported a total of 28.36 million tons of corn, of which 19.8281 million tons of corn were imported from the United States, accounting for 69.9% of the total annual corn imports; followed by Ukraine, with an import volume of 824 million tons. 10,000 tons, accounting for 29.1% of total imports.

从时间节点来看,乌克兰每年10月至次年5月是玉米主要出口窗口期,小麦出口主要是每年8-11月。乌克兰几乎所有玉米都是经由黑海港口运出。出口谷物(玉米、小麦和大麦)的三分之二通过铁路运到港口,不到30%通过卡车运输,剩下不到10%通过驳船沿第聂伯河运输。近年来95%以上的乌克兰谷物出口通过黑海西部的港口装运出海,包括尤日尼、乌拉尔、奥德萨、米科拉耶夫和赫尔松。所有这些港口都位于乌克兰玉米主生产区的南部。据新闻报道称224日乌克兰军方已暂停所有港口的商业运营,与此同时俄罗斯的谷物交易也已经暂停,亚速海的航运暂停。228日乌克兰海事管理局长称,在俄罗斯结束军事行动之前,乌克兰港口将继续关闭。研究机构SovEcon估计,俄罗斯和乌克兰在本年度还有大约1350万吨小麦和1600万吨玉米需要出口。两国粮食出口贸易的中止将会导致小麦、玉米等谷物供应的短缺,这可能导致国际市场上小麦价格、玉米价格的上涨,从而推高我国进口玉米成本。

From the point of view of time node, Ukraine is the main export window period of corn from October to May of the following year, and the export of wheat is mainly from August to November each year. Almost all corn in Ukraine is shipped through Black Sea ports. Two-thirds of the grains exported (corn, wheat and barley) are transported to ports by rail, less than 30 percent by truck, and less than 10 percent by barge along the Dnieper River. More than 95% of Ukrainian grain exports in recent years have been shipped through ports in the western Black Sea, including Yuzhny, Urals, Odessa, Mikolaev and Kherson. All of these ports are located in the southern part of Ukraine's main corn-producing region. According to news reports on February 24, the Ukrainian military has suspended commercial operations at all ports, while grain trading in Russia has also been suspended and shipping in the Sea of Azov has been suspended. Ukrainian ports will remain closed until Russia ends its military operations, the head of the Ukrainian Maritime Administration said on February 28. Research firm SovEcon estimates that Russia and Ukraine still have about 13.5 million tonnes of wheat and 16 million tonnes of corn to export this season. The suspension of grain export trade between the two countries will lead to a shortage of grain supplies such as wheat and corn, which may lead to an increase in the price of wheat and corn in the international market, thereby pushing up the cost of imported corn in my country.

相比国外粮食市场形势,国内玉米市场供应充足。据国家粮食和物资储备局统计数据显示,2021年全国粮食产量再创新高,达到13657亿斤,比上年增加267亿斤。其中,秋粮产量10178亿斤,增加191亿斤;2021年进口粮食1.65亿吨,其中第四季度超过3600万吨。2021年进口的乌克兰玉米也大多已经入库。玉米库存同比增长近10%。当前国家有关部门各类政策性库存粮食竞价销售、专场销售的频率增加,计划投放数量较大,已确定近期启动政策性稻谷拍卖。政策性稻谷拍卖一定程度会促进饲料用稻米需求。

Compared with the foreign grain market situation, the domestic corn market has sufficient supply. According to statistics from the State Bureau of Grain and Material Reserves, the national grain output in 2021 will hit a new high, reaching 1,365.7 billion catties, an increase of 26.7 billion catties over the previous year. Among them, the output of autumn grain is 1,017.8 billion catties, an increase of 19.1 billion catties; in 2021, 165 million tons of grain will be imported, of which more than 36 million tons in the fourth quarter. Most of the Ukrainian corn imported in 2021 has also been put into storage. Corn inventories rose nearly 10% year over year. At present, the frequency of auction sales and special sales of various policy stocks of grains by relevant state departments has increased, and the planned amount is relatively large. It has been determined that the policy-based rice auction will be launched in the near future. Policy-based rice auctions will boost the demand for feed rice to a certain extent.

从国内供应基本面来看,自新作玉米上市以来,贸易商、加工企业入市收购相对谨慎,东北及华北主产区售粮进度均低于去年同期,造成种植户留存玉米量较多,至少还有四成粮。随着春耕春种的开始,种植户购买农资变现需求趋增,售粮进度有望提升,局部区域或出现阶段性卖压。

From the perspective of domestic supply fundamentals, since the launch of the new crop of corn, traders and processing companies have been relatively cautious in purchasing and purchasing. There are four percent of the grain. With the start of spring ploughing and spring planting, growers' demand for purchasing agricultural materials to realize cash is increasing, and the progress of grain sales is expected to improve, and there may be staged selling pressure in some areas.


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